预算软约束与风险偏好强化：非均衡式创新中的风险点识别研究

计划经济体制导致资源使用效率低下，社会中存在大量非均衡市场和领域，这为中国企业实施均衡式创新创造了条件。随着均衡式创新的帕累托改进空间逐渐缩小，利用非均衡式创新提升资源使用效率已刻不容缓。在非均衡式创新过程中，政府极易侵入社会主体创新边界，导致创新租值降低或耗散。政府对创新主体的财政资金扶持容易对创新预算形成软约束，导致创新目标替代，强化创新主体的风险偏好，放大创新系统风险，诱发俘获政府行为，最终导致创新企业逆向淘汰。因此，明确政府在创新活动中的边界与风险，对我国实施创新驱动发展战略至关重要。     

Structural transformation in emerging economies: leading sectors and the balanced growth hypothesis

The paper uses the World Input-Output Database to address patterns of structural transformation in BRIC countries, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey. Sectoral drivers of aggregate labour productivity growth, and the relative importance of within-sector versus employment reallocation effects on aggregate labour productivity growth, are evaluated using growth accounting decomposition methods. Decomposition results are used to assess how patterns of structural transformation relate to macroeconomic performance in terms of aggregate labour productivity, output and employment growth. Together with the construction of ‘Hirschman compliance indices’, decomposition results are also used to shed light on the balanced versus unbalanced growth debates. The paper goes on to assess the extent of complementarities between manufacturing and information and communications technology-intensive advanced services through intermediate inputs, comparing the eight emerging countries with G7 countries over time.     

Alternative balanced scorecards built from paradigm models in strategic HRM and employment/industrial relations and used to measure the state of employment relations and HR system performance across U.S. workplaces

This paper constructs alternative balanced scorecards based on high‐performance work system (HPWS) and employment relations system (ERS) models. The models are depicted and compared in diagrams and used as framework skeletons for building separate HPWS and ERS scorecards, intended to provide a detailed data picture of the operational health and performance of an organization's employment/HR system and its operations, processes, and inputs/outputs. The scorecards are filled in with nationally representative data from 2,000+ U.S. workplaces using more than 50 employment/HR indicators, as reported by separate panels of managers and employees. The indicators for each workplace are aggregated into an overall HR/employment system score, ranked from low‐to‐high, and graphed as frequency distributions. These distributions provide a unique snapshot picture of the mean and dispersion of the state of employment relations and HR system performance for companies across the United State. They also reveal that “models matter” since the HPWS and ERS scorecards provide distinctly different evaluation assessments.     

基于引力模型的省域创新产出空间联系研究

基于引力模型，结合社会网络分析法的凝聚子群分析，对31个省（区、市）的创新产出空间联系进行探究，研究发现：我国省域创新产出空间联系主要集中于京津冀和长三角一带，呈现出严重的分布不均状况，具有较强的区域集中性和空间依赖性；北京、天津、上海、浙江、江苏作为区域创新产出引力较强的节点省（区、市），对周边区域的创新产出具有较强的辐射作用；总体来看，省域创新产出空间联系并没有形成贯穿东西南北的交叉网状结构，中心省（区、市）数量较少且分布不均，辐射范围有限。基于此，提出加大区域创新投入、减少区域创新产出联系的政策性障碍、营造区域创新产出联系的良好环境等政策建议。     

粮食安全与农业结构调整水平的协整分析*——以广东省为例

[目的]实现我国粮食安全与农业结构调整之间(即粮食增产和农民增收)关系的协调,较长时间以来是学界、政界关注的重要议题,但定量分析两者之间内在依存关系的研究一直欠缺。[方法]文章采用协整分析及Granger因果关系检验方法,以广东为例,对我国粮食安全(用粮食总产量来衡量)与农业结构调整水平之间的协整性及因果关系进行了研究。[结果]广东粮食总产量与反映农业结构调整水平的3个指标之间均存在长期均衡关系,且农作物播种面积中粮食作物面积对广东粮食总产量影响最大,每下降1%,粮食总产量下降0. 659 548%。短期内,反映农业结构调整水平的3个指标对广东粮食总产量的影响均存在波动,但由短期偏离拉向长期均衡的牵动作用均较弱。Granger因果关系检验表明农业在国民经济中的比重、农作物播种面积中粮食作物面积早期对广东粮食总产量产生单向影响,但影响程度相对较弱。[结论]提出应从农业结构调整以外的因素着手提高我国粮食安全水平,并通过调整农业区域结构去缓解我国粮食供求市场的结构性矛盾。     

创新驱动下中国区域高质量发展——基于平衡充分发展水平的门槛分析

创新驱动是破解中国区域不平衡不充分发展的突破口,是实现高质量发展的助推器。采用2003～2017年中国30个省市面板数据,运用全局参比Malmquist模型测度了中国区域高质量发展水平,并通过构建指标体系分别对中国各省市的平衡发展和充分发展水平进行了评价,然后通过门槛回归模型分析了在不同平衡和充分发展水平下创新驱动对于高质量发展的影响机制。结果发现：①区域高质量发展水平呈现出先下降后上升的变化趋势；②各省市平衡和充分发展水平均呈现上升趋势,但各省市之间的变化情况差异较大,有明显的空间集聚特征；③在不同的平衡及充分发展水平下,创新驱动对高质量发展的影响机制是不同的,当平衡充分发展水平较低时,创新驱动对高质量发展没有显著影响；当平衡充分发展达到一定水平时,创新驱动对高质量发展起到一定的促进作用；随着平衡充分发展水平的进一步提高,创新驱动对高质量发展的促进作用越来越大。     

Banking integration in ASEAN-6: An empirical investigation

Banking integration is widely considered as the last stepping stone of economic integration, especially at the regional level. This paper aims to introduce extended measures of banking openness and the overall balanced degree of integration through capital flows. Using the quarterly data from the ASEAN-6 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) from 1996Q4 to 2016Q4, the obtained empirical results reveal that: (i) the degree of banking openness, which measures the total inflows and outflows divided by the total banking assets of the given country, remains low and even slightly decreases, despite the increasing cross-border banking and greater economic links among ASEAN-6; (ii) the overall degree of balance, which calculates the balance and the diversification of outward and inward integration, fluctuates over time but reaches the well-balanced level. Furthermore, the research highlights main drivers of the banking integration in this region, such as regulatory quality, bank size and the global credit risk. These findings have important policy implications for banking stability and integration in ASEAN-6.     

Equally Weighted Strategic Allocation and Balanced Funds in Brazil

This article analyzes equally weighted strategic asset allocation portfolios in Brazil between 2004 and 2016 and shows that their average returns are not always statistically greater than those of balanced funds, with significance changing in sub-periods. Fixed-income portfolios frequently outperform balanced funds, whose active management underperforms their declared benchmark portfolios. Balanced funds underperformed probably because they deviated from their investment policy. Transaction costs and other rebalancing frequencies do not change the conclusions. Robustness tests indicate that this evidence is valid out-of-the-sample. Investors can mimic balanced-fund policy and possibly do better by means of indexing according to this policy.     

基于平衡计分卡的银行系寿险公司绩效评价研究

随着金融混业经营趋势不断加强，2009年起中国的银行开始入股保险公司，且以建立寿险公司为主。为了能全面评价银行入股保险公司后的运营绩效，通过构建平衡计分卡模型，从各项评价指标和总绩效角度将银行系寿险公司与传统寿险公司进行比较，发现在三年的时间里，银行系寿险公司发展迅速，且综合绩效较好，相对于传统的中小型寿险公司，具有明显的优势和发展潜力，但与大型的寿险公司相比仍有一定的差距。     

Executive flight simulator as a learning tool in new companies’ resource planning based on the balanced scorecard

In many cases, a deficient strategic planning in new companies has led entrepreneurs to take inadequate initial decisions that, in the long term, reflect consequences in the failure of many new businesses. The objective of this article is to propose an executive flight simulator, which will help to identify and evaluate the different development strategies for resources of a new manufacturing company, under the four perspectives of the balanced scorecard, educating the user on the impact that these would have in the main performance indicators. The simulator is designed utilizing the focus of system dynamics to be used didactically in master's degree programs in administration, by entrepreneurs or in executive development programs.